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Monday, December 05, 2005
 
Israel vs. Iran
by Cordeiro
I'm not an intelligence analyst, but for the sake of argument, I'll play one on this blog.

The United States Army War College has published a report declaring Israel "lacks the military capability to locate and destroy Iranian nuclear assets." The linked article goes into some details about the Israeli Air Force assets available for a pre-emptive strike against Iran's impending nuclear capability.

Again, I'm not much of a military asset analyst either. The report simply concludes that

...any Israeli attack on an Iranian nuclear target would be a very complex operation in which a relatively large number of attack aircraft and support aircraft, interceptors, ECM [electronic counter-measures] aircraft, refuelers, and rescue aircraft would participate. The conclusion is that Israel could attack only a few Iranian targets and not as part of a sustainable operation over time, but as a one time surprise operation.
What I am is a student of history. I bring to the reader's recollection June 1981. Eight Israeli Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons and six F-15 Strike Eagles effectively destroyed Saddam Hussein's budding nuclear program at Daura. The world, to say the least, was shocked. Such a daring operation was, up to that point, unthinkable. Israel was condemned for its actions by the United Nations, and yes, by the United States.

Why did Israel undertake such a drastic mission with such a low probability of success? The answer is simple. Any nuclear bomb possessed by a hostile Arab state (that would be most of them) has one primary target.

Tel Aviv. Perhaps Jerusalem.

Every Israeli knows this. Every Jew knows this. Thus, a regime such as Saddam's in Baghdad or the Mullahs in Tehran having such a weapon, is an unacceptable threat to the state of Israel.

When faced with the complete obliteration (remember, Israel a very small country) those charged with the defense of a nation are open to many courses of action - even missions normally considered outside the realm of conventional possibilities.

Somehow I think the US Army War College report missed that fact.

Here endeth the lesson.
2 Comment(s):
I believe this is one fine blog you have, I am going to link you to mine, I found you on the B4B blog roll and I am glad I did...

TexasFred

And THAT is MY Opinion... by TexasFred
American Conservative Forums
IF Iran or most ANY Islamic nation in the Mid-East is allowed to build or otherwise possess a nuclear weapon, Israel IS going to be the primary target...

Israel will not stand for this, and rightly so... And WE have no choice but to support them if they undertake an operation to destroy the nuclear capabilities of ANY Islamic nation...
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