Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Even A "Miracle" Could Not Deliver Virginia To Huckabee
As was noted in a previous post by my esteemed co-blogger Bonjo, I was unable to comment on the primary election held yesterday in the Commonwealth of Virginia. There were many MSM reports about Mike Huckabee’s quick closing on McCain in the days leading up to the Potomac Primary. McCain won by about 9 points, leading some to claim Huckabee was “showing strength on the right” and that McCain’s win was “shallow”.
I submit to you that the reporters who wrote the aforementioned articles have little understanding of Virginia – specifically Northern Virginia – politics and the various external factors that may influence voters.
Mike Huckabee’s only hope of winning the Virginia primary was to have a heavy turnout in the south and western portions of the Commonwealth while having a very low turnout in the Northern counties. That’s the way Virginia’s demographics work – South and West are Red, North is Purple at best. Yesterday’s events could not have worked more perfectly for Mike Huckabee if he had planned them himself.
Tuesday was cold – bitterly so. The temperature never got above freezing and around 3:15 pm the rain/sleet started to fall. At about 3:20 the famous Springfield “Mixing Bowl” was shut down due to numerous accidents. This effectively severed the I-95 corridor and stranded thousands of motorists – and Northern Virginia voters – miles from their homes and polling places for about six hours. I-95 is the main north-south artery connecting the Northern Virginia suburbs to Washington DC. The main east-west artery – I-66 – wasn’t much better.
How do I know this? I was there. Bonjo has the photographic proof in the post right below this one. Yes, I am waving at the traffic camera – with all five fingers thank you very much. I-95 was closed at the Springfield interchange from roughly 3:30-8:00. Southbound traffic was backed up to someplace in Baltimore.
By the time I reached my residence the polls had closed. All the talking heads were pontificating on how close the Virginia primary was and how surprising it would be if Huck could upset McCain. It was a very real possibility considering the fact that a good chunk of Northern Virginia voters spent most of the afternoon and evening trapped on I-95.
And still, with every possible demographic advantage in his favor, Huck still lost Virginia by 9 points. I submit to you that had it been a normal Tuesday in February – meaning minus the ice and sleet – Huck would have gotten clobbered by a far wider margin.
Huck claims to have “majored in miracles”. Well folks, yesterday he got one, and even with a miracle, it wasn’t enough.
Here endeth the lesson.